Jerome Powell

The mining industry is at the front line of inflation. Copper, gold, and other metals are often the first commodities to peak in price, but as inflation spreads through the economy, they are also among the first to suffer from rising labour and input costs.

So the single most important number for miners in 2022 has been the US interest rate. US inflation peaked in June 2022, when prices were up 9.1% over the previous twelve months, the fastest rate in over 40 years, pushing the Fed to unleash successive rate increases. Good news for miners trying to keep costs down, but potentially bearish for commodity demand.

Just how high, and how fast, the US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is going to hike rates is a key input for every operating miner's financial forecasts. Gold miners tend to be the most hawkish, as interest rate cuts can be immediately supportive for gold, while other producers may be hoping for a dovish approach to keep the global economy and mineral demand turning over.

Ask any two miners what Powell should do next, and you will get two different answers, but the Fed's influence on the industry remains at an all-time high.

 

Joe Biden

Relations between the US mining industry and the Democratic Party have never been perfect, and many miners will have greeted the election of President Joe Biden with a certain amount of scepticism.

The US remains hostile territory for many miners, with a permitting system that is badly in need of reform. Successive administrations, Democratic and Republican, have failed to push through changes to a system that sees new mines take over a decade to get permitted. Few are optimistic that a Democratic-led government will be willing or able to make the changes mine developers badly need.

But the US is less important to the global mining industry as a place to build new mines than it is as the biggest end consumer market in the world.

And on this front, Biden has been more supportive. Biden's infrastructure bill, signed in late-2021, has the potential to unlock a huge amount of metal and mineral demand. And ongoing funding for green energy is good news for demand.

In the critical mineral space, Washington and the Pentagon have been ever more supportive, though whether this paper support is going to result in new critical mineral projects getting built at scale remains an open question.

 

Matthew Chamberlain

2022 was an annus horriblis for the LME. The world's largest metal exchange already started the year facing stock shortages and liquidity problems.

These problems were kicked into overdrive when the Russian invasion of Ukraine triggered an unforeseen supply shock in nickel markets in March 2022. The LME reacted by suspending markets, and cancelling trades in an attempt to calm volatility.

With the 145-year old exchange in the midst of one of its biggest crises, LME chief executive Matthew Chamberlain backtracked on his plan to leave, agreeing to a new multi-year contract.

Chamberlain's decision not to move over to the world of crypto may have been a fortuitous one, given late developments in that market, but his extended stay at the LME has not been easy, as the exchange faces lawsuits over its handling of nickel contracts.

And there have been further pressures from the Ukraine conflict as the LME grapples with whether to ban Russian aluminium, a decision which is certain to cause anger, no matter which way it falls. So far Chamberlain has given Russian metal a stay of execution, but with continued pressure for a full ban from the US, he is likely to stay in the hot seat for the time being.

 

Duncan Wanblad

The departure of mining legend Mark Cutifani from Anglo American in 2021 was always going to leave some big shoes to fill. And incoming CEO Duncan Wanblad has faced major challenges in his first year in the role.

Anglo American's operations in South Africa are perilously tied to the country's failing electricity grid, as it grapples with the need to source more power, cleanly. Meanwhile, in Peru the company has been working to ramp up the crucial Quellaveco copper mine, in the face of an uncertain political climate.

And another key test for Wanblad will be delivering on Woodsmith, the massive UK potash project, and proving that Anglo American did not overpay for the troubled asset when it was acquired in 2019.

Wanblad's first results presentation was certainly a baptism of fire, as he showed investors slumping earnings, surging operating costs, and a cut to dividends.

But as disappointing as those results were, markets have digested the bad news, and shares stabilised in their wake, with company stock now up on the year, although well below the all time highs of the first half.

 

Gary Nagle

The incoming CEO of Glencore is another new mining boss who started the job with a lot on his plate.

For Glencore the most pressing issue has been settling accusations of corruption and malfeasance stretching back to 2007, in jurisdictions around the world.

Under Nagle, it is clear that the company is keen to put these problems behind it, even if it needs to break out the checkbook. Payments made to settle cases in Brazil, the DRC, the UK and the US are pushing the total costs of this account settling toward US$2 billion.

But despite these problems, it has been a bumper year for Glencore's shareholders, as the company benefits from its coal assets. Glencore has been swimming against the ESG stream with its decision to hold and run down coal assets, rather than sell them off, but in the short term this has delivered thanks to the recent spike in coal prices.

And the company continues to benefit from its trading arm, which makes it much more resilient than other mining majors to market volatility and uncertainty.

 

Robert Wilt

Robert Wilt joined Ma'aden, the Saudi state mining company, at the start of 2022. Wilt is the company's fourth CEO in two years, and was not previously a well known name in the industry, despite having worked at Alcoa earlier in the year. Wilt's most recent posts were in the food industry, and prior to that in metals casting.

But Ma'aden is set to become an ever-bigger name in mining, as the country turns its considerable cash reserves to develop its long-neglected metal and mineral resources, as well as to drive up the processing of imported material. Saudi Arabia's ambitions are still being received with a certain amount of scepticism in the global mining industry, but with big names including Mark Bristow making moves, money will not be left on the table for long.

 

Kellie Parker

Rio Tinto's culture report, released in February 2022, sent shockwaves through the industry. Many were quick to point out that the problems it described, which include workplace bullying, harassment and assault, are industry-wide, but that has not lessened the pressure on Rio executives to act. Kellie Parker, chief executive of Rio Tinto Australia, has been one of the first in the firing line, given the company's Australian focus, as well as the particular problems reported by aboriginal employees. But Rio Tinto will be hoping that by tackling these problems head on, the company may be able to be a leader in reforming workplace culture.

 

Mike Henry

BHP CEO Mike Henry has been overseeing a massive attempted shift in the company's strategy, as it struggles with low growth, and looks for opportunities in new energy minerals. But for many industry watchers Henry's most important role has been as a player in the ongoing soap opera of BHP's multi-billion dollar wooing of OZ Minerals, a pursuit that may be finally bearing fruit.

 

Mark Bristow

The Barrick Gold CEO, a regular on the Mining Journal most influential list, has had another busy year, with continued investment in mines, plenty of M&A speculation, and a recent push into Saudi Arabia. Comments made at conferences and in investor calls also suggest Bristow is starting to develop a taste for copper to supplement Barrick's gold business. And although he shows no signs of imminent retirement, attention has inevitably started to turn to the question of whether Bristow will champion a successor before his eventual retirement.

 

Amanda Lacaze

Lynas has a long history of being the only Western company that can ride the volatility and irrationality of the rare earths market. Lynas played its cards right over a decade ago, when it leveraged a short-term price spike into a long-term tie up with Japanese firms, and the Malaysian government. And the company may have played the same trick with the most recent supply shock, after striking deals with the US DoD for light and heavy rare eaerth refining capacity.

 

1	Jerome Powell	Chair	US Federal Reserve
2	Joe Biden	President	United States of America
3	Matthew Chamberlain	CEO	London Metal Exchange
4	Duncan Wanblad	CEO	Anglo American
5	Gary Nagle	CEO	Glencore
6	Robert Wilt	CEO	Maaden
7	Kellie Parker	Chief Executive, Australia	Rio Tinto
8	Mike Henry	CEO	BHP
9	Mark Bristow	President and CEO	Barrick Gold
10	Amanda Lacaze	CEO and MD	Lynas Corporation
11	Xi Jinping	President	People's Republic of China
12	Andrew Forrest	Non-executive chairman	Fortescue Metals Group
13	Jakob Stausholm	CEO	Rio Tinto
14	Jim North	CEO	Ferrexpo
15	Ken Seitz	CEO	Nutrien
16	Juana Barcelo	President of Pueblo Viejo Mine	Barrick Gold
17	Elon Musk	CEO	Tesla
18	Sébastien de Montessus	CEO	Endeavour
19	Robert Friedland	Founder	Ivanhoe Mines
20	Tom Palmer	CEO	Newmont Corporation
21	Li Liangbin	founder and president	Ganfeng
22	Simon Redmond	Senior director	S&P Global Ratings
23	Michael Steinmann	CEO	Pan-American Silver
24	David Harquail	Chairman	Franco-Nevada
25	Randy Smallwood	President and CEO	Wheaton Precious Metals
26	Mark McGowan	Premier	Western Australia
27	Eduardo Bartolomeo	CEO	Vale
28	Richard Adkerson	CEO	Freeport-McMoRan
29	Kent Masters	CEO	Albemarle
30	Ammar Al-Joundi	CEO	Agnico Eagle
31	Carol Page	Director FRRP	UK Financial Reporting Council
32	Bruce Griffin	Exec Chair	Sheffield Resources
33	Stacy Hope	Managing director	Women in Mining
34	Chen Jinghe	Founder	Zijin Mining
35	Peter Marrone	Executive chairman	Yamana Gold
36	Gina Rinehart	Chair	Hancock Prospecting
37	Michelle Manook	CEO	World Coal Association
38	Jake Klein	Exec Chair	Evolution Mining
39	Dianqing Zhao	CEO	China Norther Rare Earths
40	Frank Giustra	CEO	Fiore Group
41	Evy Hambro	Team leader, natural resources	Blackrock
42	Adam Matthews	Director of investment team	Church of England pensions board
43	Wang Chanfu	founder and ceo	BYD
44	Adam Davidson	CEO	Trident
45	Nicolai Tangen	CEO	Norges Bank Investment Management
46	Aimee Boulanger	Executive director	Initiative for Responsible Mining Assurance
47	Oskar Lewnowski	CIO	Orion Mine Finance
48	Chris Ellison	Managing director	Mineral Resources Limited
49	Jeremy Weir	CEO	Trafigura
50	Ricardo Ramos	CEO	SQM