PRECIOUS METALS

Gold could hit new record, says researcher

Central banks shifted to net sellers for the first time in nearly a decade

Staff Reporter
Central banks were net sellers of gold during the September 2020 quarter

Central banks were net sellers of gold during the September 2020 quarter

Central banks shifted to net selling during the period for the first time in nearly a decade.

Net sales were estimated at just under 13t.

An absence of purchases from Russia and China drove the shift, along with increased gross sales by some countries battling the economic effects of COVID-19.

Refinitiv's analysis suggests banks are taking advantage of high gold prices.

"It is in the near term that we are likely to see increased volatility, choppy trading and fluctuations in the stock markets and the gold price, particularly in the run-up to US presidential elections," said precious metals director Cameron Alexander.

"While we may see gold consolidating or caught up in a broader sell-off in the short term, gold should benefit from growing risks revolving around the second COVID-19 outbreak and the global economic turmoil, and we may well see the yellow metal hit a new record before the year-end."

Refinitiv forecasts the gold price to average US$1,784/oz in 2020 following the record run in August to $2,067/oz. Gold averaged $1,909/oz in the third quarter, up 27% from the previous three months and up 30% yoy.

Jewellery fabrication was the worst impacted sector, while industrial demand slumped and investment demand improved marginally.

Gold exchange-traded products saw a strong quarter of demand, estimated at more than 280t, with total inflows over the nine months estimated at over 1,000t, up 60% from the record annual gain in 2009.

Mine output slipped 2% to about 862t while scrap supplies surged 29% in all key regions.

Refinitiv said total supply rose by 10% which, given subdued demand, saw the gold market's physical surplus grow in the third quarter.

 

A growing series of reports, each focused on a key discussion point for the mining sector, brought to you by the Mining Journal Intelligence team.

A growing series of reports, each focused on a key discussion point for the mining sector, brought to you by the Mining Journal Intelligence team.

editions

ESG Mining Company Index: Benchmarking the Future of Sustainable Mining

The ESG Mining Company Index report provides an in-depth evaluation of ESG performance of 61 of the world's largest mining companies. Using a robust framework, it assesses each company across 9 meticulously weighted indicators within 6 essential pillars.

editions

Mining Journal Intelligence Global Leadership Report 2024: Net Zero

Gain insights into decarbonisation trends and strategies from interviews with 20+ top mining executives and experts plus an industrywide survey.

editions

Mining Journal Intelligence Project Pipeline Handbook 2024

View our 50 top mining projects, handpicked using a unique, objective selection process from a database of 450+ global assets.

editions

Mining Journal Intelligence Investor Sentiment Report 2024

Survey revealing the plans, priorities, and preferences of 120+ mining investors and their expectations for the sector in 2024.