MINER'S RIGHT

Coal quarrel heads for Sydney showdown

Whitehaven fights off anti-coal crusaders

Tim Treadgold
Coal quarrel heads for Sydney showdown

There is, believe it or not, something funnier than complaints from people who buy a house under an aircraft flight path and then moan about aircraft noise, and that's people who buy shares in a coal mining company and then complain about coal.

The flight path issue is understandable if a family has been in residence long before a nearby airport is built, such as the occupants of Windsor Castle which is directly under the flight path of London's Heathrow airport.

The coal issue is less comprehensible because if you don't like coal don't buy shares in a coal miner and if you already own shares, sell them.

It is, of course, a bit trickier than that because we live in an era of investor activism driven by environmental concerns and financial factors.

In the case of Australia's Whitehaven Coal it's a bit of both, which is why Thursday's annual meeting of the company in Sydney should prove to be quite interesting.

Over the past three years, Whitehaven has successfully fought off anti-coal crusaders, a coal-price crash, and a Chinese embargo on Australian coal to deliver a 700% share-price increase from a low of A90 cents to last sales at A$7.57.

The stock has risen higher when the coal price booms, as it did in last year, but anyone complaining about a 700% rise over three years is pretty hard to satisfy.

London-based fund manager Bell Rock is one of the "not happy" gang though more because it disagrees with Whitehaven's latest investment which is in two coking coal mines being offloaded by BHP.

Full-page advertisements have been placed in Australian newspapers by Bell Rock, along with a social media blitz claiming that Whitehaven management has presided over the destruction of the company's share price while overpaying its chief executive, Paul Flynn.

Bell Rock chief investment officer Mike O'Mara, said in a letter to Whitehaven shareholders that it was a long-term strategic investor managing close to 5% of the coal companies issued shares.

The criticism is likely to continue at Thursday's meeting where Bell Rock is expected to lead a small rebellion by voting against Flynn's salary package.

But where Bell Rock has a problem is its comment about being a long-term investor because Whitehaven's US$4.1 billion acquisition of the Daunia and Blackwater mines from BHP in Queensland is unquestionably a long-term move for a very obvious reason, both mines produce steel-making coal not thermal, or electricity producing, coal.

Pressure on coal, which has seen BHP, Rio Tinto and other big miners sell their thermal coal assets, is less obvious in the coking (or metallurgical) sector because a replacement source of heat is yet to be proven commercially viable for the bulk of the steel industry.

Whitehaven, as its product mix stands today is largely a thermal coal producer but it can read the writing on the wall and knows that government and environmental activists will not leave it alone if it sticks with that a business plan which has been good but might not stay that way.

So, armed with a handy pile of cash from last year's thermal coal boom which saw the price sail to an all-time high of US$440 a tonne after Russia invaded Ukraine, Whitehaven spotted an opportunity to move up the coal value chain by acquiring two plum assets from BHP.

Investors, other than Bell Rock, have welcomed the deal because it removes risk for both Whitehaven and BHP with Whitehaven reconfiguring itself as a mainly metallurgical coal miner and BHP trimming its coal business back to a small number of high-class metallurgical assets.

Since stock market speculation started to swirl around the deal earlier this month Whitehaven's share price has risen by 17% to A$7.61, an increase which knocks some of the wind out of Bell Rocks sails.

Most investment banks which follow coal, a cohort which seems to be increasing as the reality of energy demand overpowers the hyperbole of coal's critics, see Whitehaven as a stock to buy.

Morgan Stanley last week upped its price target for the stock from A$7.75 as recently as last month to A$8.90 describing the cost of the Daunia and Blackwater deal as at "a fair premium" to its discounted cash flow valuation.

Citi is more cautious with a neutral view and price tip of A$7.60 but said Whitehaven's "saleable equity tonnes" will increase from 13 million tonnes and year to around 30m/t a year with metallurgical coal accounting for 60% of the mix.

Morgans, a small Australian investment bank, described the deal with BHP as Whitehaven's "met coal pivot" adding that "we like the diversification strategy and the likely improvement to financing optionality and breadth of investor appeal."

Thursday's annual meeting will test those views, as well as Bell Rock's negative stance, though it is stretching the point to describe the looming encounter in Sydney as lumps of coal at 10-paces.

 

 

 

 

 

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