PRECIOUS METALS

Silver Institute sees metal regaining some shine in 2019

Third consecutive year of deficit to support silver prices 7% higher at US$16.75

The Silver Institute expects silver to shine this year

The Silver Institute expects silver to shine this year

The non-profit organisation said Tuesday it saw a "more supportive" climate for the metal this year, building on a disappointing 2018 performance.

In the past 12 months silver had achieved a high of $17.22/oz before falling below $16 since July to reach a low of $13.98. On Tuesday silver traded at $15.79.

Silver bullion sales were already off to a strong start, the institute said in its 2019 silver market trends update. For example, sales of the US Mint's American Eagle coins rose 12% year-on-year in January. Silver should also benefit from the expected slowdown of US Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.

The institute said it expected strong demand drivers to continue this year. The industrial fabrication sector, responsible for about 60% of the metal's demand, was expected to see a modest rise in 2019. Silver demand from the photovoltaic sector would be strong, especially where governments supported the move to renewable energy sources.

It predicted solid growth for jewellery uses, with India leading the way. Exchange traded products would expand by eight million ounces this year. The demand for physical silver investment should grow by 5%, the institute said, noting that in comparison to gold, silver had a "very attractive" price point based on the high gold:silver ratio at around 82.

Further, the institute said it expected primary silver mine production to fall by 2% this year. It only expected modest rises in production to come from increased gold and zinc-lead by-product mining.

Supplies of scrap should pick up modestly, following several years of stable flows. The market was expected to chalk up its third year in deficit, as all produced silver was absorbed in the downstream sectors, the institute said.

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