"2021 was not without its challenges for New Gold, but we continued to execute on our plans, with the fourth quarter representing our strongest quarter of the year, allowing us to meet our updated consolidated gold-equivalent production guidance," the Canada-focused miner's president and CEO Renaud Adams said on January 12. 

New Gold's gold-equivalent production for the year was 418,933 ounces, which compares with guidance of 405,000-450,000oz. That guidance was lowered from 440,000-490,000oz on September 13 due to gold-grade issues at the Rainy River mine in the southern half of the Richardson Township in Ontario. 

The full-year result followed Q4 gold-equivalent production of 111,574oz, which BMO Capital Markets analyst Brian Quast said fell below the bank's forecast of 117,500oz. 

"Compared to our expectations, the underperformance at both assets can be largely attributed to lower-than-expected grades. However, grades improved notably quarter-over-quarter at Rainy River, as the mine emerges from issues earlier in the year at the East Lobe," Quast said. 

New Gold said the gold grade milled in Q4 at Rainy River was 1.03 grams per tonne, which was up from 0.89g/t in the July-September quarter, and from 0.80g/t in the January-March period. 

Quast said BMO forecasted New Gold's production would grow by about 25%, to more than 500,000oz, in 2022. He added this was predominately driven by improving grades at both Rainy River and the company's British Columbian New Afton mine. 

"While 2022 is poised to be a relatively high reinvestment year, with our estimate of $288 million in capex (sustaining and growth), we expect [New Gold] to maintain its recently achieved net cash position," Quast said. 

"2023 should be a year of significant free-cash-flow generation," he added. 

On January 12, RBC Capital Markets said that it had maintained its 2022 gold price forecast, which was originally published in March last year, at $1,695/oz. For 2023, RBC predicted the gold price would fall to $1,615/oz. 

"In our view, the risks balance out to somewhat lower prices by year-end successively, as the landscape looks more like 2021 through our forecast horizon than it does the 2019 to mid-2020 period, when drivers are balanced," RBC said. 

BMO said it expects New Gold to achieve its revised 2021 AISC guidance range of $1,415-$1,495/oz. 

New Gold plans to release its fourth-quarter and full-year 2021 financial results and 2022 outlook on February 23.